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[2 P]You want to estimate the bias of a coin using a Bayesian approach. For that you toss the
coin ten times and get the following result
- a)
- Compute the parameters of the posterior probability using a uniform Beta distribution as
prior. Plot the posterior probability density function using the MATLAB function
betapdf
.
- b)
- You do another experiment with ten tosses and this time you get the following result
Again compute the parameters of the posterior probability with (i) a uniform Beta distribution
(ii) using the parameters you obtained after the first experiment. Plot the two posterior probability
density function.
- c)
- Compute the probability that the next toss will be
using the results from b).
- d)
- Explain the different results you get in b) and c).
2015 Gernot Griesbacher, Anand Subramoney